Washington and Havana Agree to Discussions Part 2
Washington and Havana Agree to Discussions Part 2
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Castro lost his patron and his strategic guarantor. On the other side of the coin, Cuba in reality, was no longer a threat to the United States, but could still become a threat. Washington would not end its hostility toward Havana, but also would not actively try to overthrow Cuba. Cuba did remain a nuisance in places like Venezuela, but a nuisance is hardly a strategic threat. Thus the relationship between Cuba and the United States remained frozen.
Cuba needs better relations with the United States, especially if the Venezuelan government fails. Venezuela’s poor economy could force a regime change in Cuba from internal pressure. If the Cuban government is to be preserved, it must be secured now. It is not at all certain who will continue after the Castro brothers. Fidel is a very old man and Raul, the younger brother is quite old as well.
The United States does has time however. Maintaining pressure on Cuba really makes no sense, but neither is there any urgency for Washington to let up on Cuba.
Obama may very well want a legacy, but the logic of the situation is that the Cubans need this relationship more than the Americans do. The American price for normalizing the realtionship between the two countries will be higher than it appears to be at this moment, whether this normalization is put into place by Obama or by his successor.
There is still a very long way to go on this issue, dear reader. We will just have to wait and see how the whole thing develops and comes together.
