Washington and Havana Agree to Discussions
Washington and Havana agree to discussions with the goal of establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries. No agreement has been reached to end the United States embargo on Cuba, as that is a step which requieres the approval of Congress.
The fact that there is any agreement at all, is significant in itself. Relations with Cuba have been frozen for decades, with neither side prepared to make any noteworthy concession, or a first move.
On the American side, a coalition of conservative Cuban Americans and human rights advocates decry Cuba’s record of human right’s violations
and therefore have blocked the efforts. On the Cuban side, enmity with the United States plays a key role in legitimizing the communist regime. The Cuban government was born out of opposition to American imperialism and Havana has used the ongoing United States embargo to explain its economic failures.
There were no external pressures which compelled either side to accommodate the other and there were substantial internal reasons to leave the situation exactly as it has been for so long.
The Cubans are now under some pressure to shift their policies. They have managed to survive the fall of the Soviet Union with some difficulty. But now Cuba faces a more immediate problem: Uncertainty in Venezuela. Caracas supplies oil to Cuba at deeply discounted prices. Of course we do not know the true state of the Cuban economy or how close it could be to the edge,however there is no doubt that the oil received from Venezuela makes a significant difference in the Cuban economy. President Nicolas Maduro’s government is facing mounting unrest over his government’s economic failures. If the Venezuelan government fails, Cuba would lose one of its most important supporters. Of course Venezuela’s fate is far from certain, but Cuba must start thinking about a worst-case scenario and start shaping openings for itself. opening to the United States, makes sense in terms of regime preservation.
(to be continued)
